Time for GOP panic? Establishment worried Carson or Trump might win
Trump captures the nation’s attention as he campaigns
The presidential candidate and billionaire businessman leads the field of candidates in the Republican race. |
Less
than three months before the kickoff Iowa caucuses, there is growing
anxiety bordering on panic among Republican elites about the dominance
and durability of Donald Trump and Ben Carson and widespread
bewilderment over how to defeat them.
Party leaders and
donors fear that nominating either man would have negative ramifications
for the GOP ticket up and down the ballot, virtually ensuring a Hillary
Rodham Clinton presidency and increasing the odds that the Senate falls
into Democratic hands.
In
normal times, the way forward would be obvious. The wannabes would
launch concerted campaigns, including television attack ads, against the
front-runners. But even if the other candidates had a sense of what
might work this year, it is unclear whether it would ultimately accrue
to their benefit. Trump’s counterpunches have been withering, while
Carson’s appeal to the base is spiritual, not merely political. If
someone was able to do significant damage to them, there’s no telling to
whom their supporters would turn, if anyone.
Trump goes off on 'pathological' Carson at Iowa rally |
The rest of the field is still
wishing upon a star that Trump and Carson are going to self-destruct,”
said Eric Fehrnstrom, a former adviser to 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. But,
he said, “they have to be made to self-destruct. . . . Nothing has
happened at this point to dislodge Trump or Carson.”
Fehrnstrom
pointed out that the fourth debate passed this week without any
candidate landing a blow against Trump or Carson. “We’re about to step
into the holiday time accelerator,” he said. “You have Thanksgiving,
Christmas, New Year’s, then Iowa and a week later, New Hampshire, and
it’s going to be over in the blink of an eye.”
According
to other Republicans, some in the party establishment are so desperate
to change the dynamic that they are talking anew about drafting Romney —
despite his insistence that he will not run again. Friends have mapped
out a strategy for a late entry to pick up delegates and vie for the
nomination in a convention fight, according to the Republicans who were
briefed on the talks, though Romney has shown no indication of reviving
his interest.
For months, the GOP professional class assumed
Trump and Carson would fizzle with time. Voters would get serious, the
thinking went, after seeing the outsiders share a stage with more
experienced politicians at the first debate. Or when summer turned to
fall, kids went back to school and parents had time to assess the
candidates. Or after the second, third or fourth debates, certainly.
None
of that happened, of course, leaving establishment figures disoriented.
Consider Thomas H. Kean Sr., a former New Jersey governor who for most
of his 80 years has been a pillar of his party. His phone is ringing
daily, bringing a stream of exasperation and confusion from fellow GOP
power brokers.
“People usually start off in the same way:
Pollyanna-ish,” Kean said. “They assure me that Trump and Carson will
eventually fade. Then we’ll talk some more, and I give them a reality
check. I’ll say, ‘The guy in the grocery store likes Trump. So does the
guy who cuts my hair. They’re probably going to stick with him. Who
knows if this ends?’ ”
“You have a lot of people who were told that if we got a majority in the House and a majority in the Senate, then life was gonna be great,” she said in an interview Thursday. “What you’re seeing is that people are angry. Where’s the change? Why aren’t there bills on the president’s desk every day for him to veto? They’re saying, ‘Look, what you said would happen didn’t happen, so we’re going to go with anyone who hasn’t been elected.’ ”
Before Tuesday’s debate in Milwaukee, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker had a reception at the Pfister Hotel with party leaders, donors and operatives. There was little appetite for putting a political knife in the back of either Trump or Carson, according to one person there. Rather, attendees simply hoped both outsiders would go away.
There are similar concerns about Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who is gaining steam and is loathed by party elites, but they are more muted, at least for now.
Charlie Black, who has advised presidential campaigns since the 1970s, said he believes the 2016 contest “will eventually fall into the normal pattern of one outsider and one insider, and historically the insider always wins.”
Black said he was briefed on the findings of two recent private focus groups of Trump supporters in Iowa and New Hampshire that showed these voters knew little about his policy views beyond immigration. “Things like universal health care and other more liberal positions he’s taken in the past will all get out before people vote in New Hampshire,” he said. Black said the focus groups were commissioned by two rival campaigns, but he was not authorized to identify them.
One well-funded outside group, the Club for Growth, has aired ads attacking Trump in Iowa and more recently came out against Carson as well. “Donald Trump and Doctor Ben Carson are in over their heads,” said Club for Growth President David McIntosh, labeling both candidates as “pretenders.”
Still, the party establishment’s greatest weapon — big money — is partly on the shelf. Kenneth G. Langone, a founder of Home Depot and a billionaire supporter of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, said he is troubled that many associates in the New York financial community have so far refused to invest in a campaign due to the race’s volatility.
Many of Romney’s 2012 National Finance Committee members have sat out the race so far, including Peter A. Wish, a Florida doctor whom several 2016 candidates have courted.
“I’m not a happy camper,” Wish said. “Hopefully, somebody will emerge who will be able to do the job,” but, he added, “I’m very worried that the Republican-base voter is more motivated by anger, distrust of D.C. and politicians and will throw away the opportunity to nominate a candidate with proven experience that can win.”
The apprehension among some party elites goes beyond electability, according to one Republican strategist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly about the worries.
“We’re potentially careening down this road of nominating somebody who frankly isn’t fit to be president in terms of the basic ability and temperament to do the job,” this strategist said. “It’s not just that it could be somebody Hillary could destroy electorally, but what if Hillary hits a banana peel and this person becomes president?”
Angst about Trump intensified this week after he made two comments that could prove damaging in a general election. First, he explained his opposition to raising the minimum wage by saying “wages are too high.” Second, he said he would create a federal “deportation force” to remove the more than 11 million immigrants living in the United States illegally.
“To have a leading candidate propose a new federal police force that is going to flush out illegal immigrants across the nation? That’s very disturbing and concerning to me about where that leads Republicans,” said Dick Wadhams, a former GOP chairman in Colorado, a swing state where Republicans are trying to pick up a Senate seat next year.
Said
Austin Barbour, a veteran operative and fundraiser now advising former
Florida governor Jeb Bush: “If we don’t have the right [nominee], we
could lose the Senate, and we could face losses in the House. Those are
very, very real concerns. If we’re not careful and we nominate Trump,
we’re looking at a race like Barry Goldwater in 1964 or George McGovern
in 1972, getting beat up across the board because of our nominee.”
“This business has turned into show business,” said Voinovich, who is backing Ohio Gov. John Kasich. “We can’t afford to have somebody sitting in the White House who doesn’t have governing experience and the gravitas to move this country ahead.”
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